I’m finding the action in markets a bit mysterious, explains growth stock expert Sean Brodrick, editor of Wealth Megatrends — and a participant in the Money, Metals & Mining Virtual Expo on August 24-26.
We saw Treasury yields rise in early 2020 due to the global economy reopening as the pandemic faded, and inflation got a jump-start from all that pent-up buying power.
For their part, investors bought into expectations for a reflationary surge. Since inflation erodes interest payments from bonds, this sparked a bond sell-off that drove up yields.
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Fast-forward to now. In the U.S., the 10-year rate has fallen sharply. And the amount of debt offering negative yields now stands at $16.5 trillion; that’s a six-month high. It sure looks like a lot of people are betting that inflation is going to be very transitory.
Yet, lumber has tumbled from its recent high. Iron ore has given up most of its gains for the year. Do we really think we’ll need less iron? That’s not what economic data is telling us.
The economy is chugging along just fine. Jobs numbers are a bit weak, but the ISM Services Index rose to 64.1 in July — its highest level since record keeping began in 1997.
To me, it doesn’t look like we’re going back into deflation or even stagflation. Inflation may cool off a bit, but that path has a long way to go. The bottom line: I don’t see the need to make any changes in your portfolio right now.
Newmont Corp. (NEM) — the massive gold miner — reported earnings on July 22, narrowly beating both EPS and revenue estimates. EPS of 83 cents topped by less than 1 cent, and revenues of $3.1 billion positively surprised by 1%.
Newmont’s dividend yields a solid 3.6% annually, and the company is consistently raising it. NEM’s dividend has grown an average of 60% per year over the last three years, and it’s predicted to continue increasing 16% per year over the next three. The stock will trade ex-dividend in early September.
The company announced it’s moving forward into the execution phase with its Ahafo North Project. The company sees tremendous potential, declaring it “the best unmined gold deposit in West Africa.” The mine is expected to produce 275,000-325,000 ounces of gold with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) between $600-$700 per ounce. Nice!
Vale S.A. (VALE) released its second-quarter financial performance on July 28, topping earnings consensus by 9% with $8.27 per share and beating revenue estimates by 7% with $87.8 billion. Vale’s net income is projected to increase 152% year over year to $43 billion!
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Vale’s dividend has averaged growth of 76% per year over the past five years, even considering a temporary discontinuation in the first quarter of 2019. You most recently collected about 44 cents per share on July 8, and the company will make its next declaration in September.
Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) — a copper miner exchange-traded fund (ETF) — is up 9% from our entry, and it should benefit from an increase in global industrial investments.
COPX’s dividend yields about 1% at current prices, and its payments are distributed semiannually. You just received about 16 cents per share on July 8, and the company’s next declaration is in December.
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